Clegg’s ratings droop

The common man’s touch? For more Lolcleggz, click here (courtesy of Popbitch.com)

Don’t mention immigration. I said it once but I think I got away with it

So is that it then? We’ve had the three live debates and the consensus amongst pollsters, journalists, and commentators on this sort of thing, is that Cameron improved each time and was the outright winner last night, although there was no ‘knock-out blow’. With the Lib Dems poll rating beginning to fade away, we’re told this means the Tories are on course for a narrow victory. Except there’s still the best part of a week to go before polling day. And, as everybody knows, a week is a long time in politics. Which roughly translates to “actually, it’s still up for grabs”.

In particular, there are still a lot of unanswered questions on the economy. The question is, now that there are no more debates, will anyone ask these questions? Yesterday’s debate was ostensibly on the economy, but we learned nothing new, and then the debate got somewhat hijacked by the issue of immigration.

It does however seem Labour is set for a significant battering unless there is some kind of dramatic turnaround. In what was surely a bad omen, the unveiling of the Labour Party’s new election poster was overshadowed by a car crashing into a bus stop. Gordon Brown is tonight going to face Paxman – is there another, albeit metaphorical, car crash in the making?


QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Asked later by one broadcaster if the crash was a metaphor for Labour's election campaign, Lord Mandelson said: ‘No.’”

– Even the BBC, constrained as it is by impartiality rules during the election, couldn’t resist that one.


THE GREASY POLL
Lab 29, Con 36, LibDem 26 (ComRes)

It’s the economy, stupid

Lights, camera... action?

The other day I met an old woman in Rochdale and I called her “bigoted”

With the media frenzy of yesterday still fresh in their minds, the watchword for tonight’s final live televised leaders’ debate is bound to be ‘caution’. Yet given the topic of the debate is the economy, caution is not what is called for. The IFS, having been unceremoniously bumped off the news agenda yesterday, continues to press its case for greater honesty on the huge spending cuts it says will be necessary.

Some pundits have suggested that a bold strategy on the economy might even deliver two terms. The logic being: normal political logic does not apply. The harder and bigger your stick now, the more carrots you can dangle by way of sweeteners in time for the next election. No-one ever won an election promising a decade of straight cuts, afterall.

Cameron clearly has the most to win and lose tonight. His ‘big society’ idea has not really set voters’ hearts and minds alight, and he needs a big performance (which he is more than capable of) if he is to secure a workable majority. That said, he will be exposed to Brown and Clegg who will point out his inheritance tax policy favours the very wealthy and for his stance on Northern Rock in the middle of the crisis. As the country’s foremost economist (also known as Robert Peston) pointed out on Tuesday, taxpayers are currently a few billion quid up on their involuntary investment in Lloyds...


QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Sky' Kay Burley asks student with red Gordon Brown t-shirt, which way he's going to vote. He says ‘Er, you can tell from my T-shirt. Labour’”

– Paul Waugh of the Evening Standard wonders if all the election coverage is taking its toll on Kay Burley.


THE GREASY POLL
Lab 27, Con 34, LibDem 31 (YouGov)

Special edition: #bigotgate

…and remove any microphones you may have attached to you

Down and out on the campaign trail

The day began so inauspiciously. The IFS blandly pointing out that none of the main parties have said remotely enough about their plans for spending cuts. The SNP losing its legal challenge to the live televised leaders’ debates. The Alliance Party in Northern Ireland launching its manifesto. All in all, a typical election campaign day.

But then came news of a political earthquake in Rochdale of all places. No, make that a tsunami. Wait, an earthquake and a tsunami, that’s more like it. Really? In Rochdale? Yes.

The BBC News 24 BREAKING NEWS alert announced that during one of Gordon Brown’s walkabouts in the key Labour target seat, he had called a woman “bigoted” as he departed in his car, unaware that his microphone was still dutifully reporting his every word. This followed a conversation he had had with a 66 year-old woman – Gillian Duffy – who had been heckling him, but which Brown had dealt with well; she herself told reporters she would still be voting Labour. But, sensing a story, Sky News played her back a tape of Brown’s unguarded comments and suddenly Ms Duffy was at the centre of a media storm.

The comment already had its own Twitter hashtag, ‘#bigotgate’ within minutes and Brown was promptly ambushed by Jeremy Vine on Radio 2. His response was to telephone Ms Duffy to apologise, before going back to Rochdale to apologise in person.

And so the analysis begins. How much does it matter? Does it actually matter? Should it matter? One thing is certain however, tomorrow’s papers will be full of ‘bigotgate’ coverage despite the infinitely duller topic of spending cuts being infinitely more necessary. The IFS may not have a vote in the election but then again, nor do the papers.


QUOTE OF THE DAY

Gillian Duffy: “You can't say anything about the immigrants because you're saying that you're ... all these Eastern Europeans what are coming in, where are they flocking from?”

Gordon Brown: “A million people come from Europe but a million people, British people, have gone into Europe. You do know that there's a lot of British people staying in Europe as well?”

Gordon Brown [later in car]: “…she's just a sort of bigoted woman, said she used to be Labour. It's just ridiculous.”

THE GREASY POLL
Lab 29, Con 35, LibDem 29 (Independent/ITV/ComRes)

A vote for The Hung Parliament Party is a wasted vote

“Vote Labour. Because Jack Bauer says so.” Could this be the next Labour Party broadcast?

Stop all this hung parliament nonsense

Politicians of all shades and complexions have been complaining in the media that all this talk (also in the media) of a hung parliament is preventing the real substance around policy being debated. Stop focusing on personalities, they say. Stop harping on about coalitions. And for goodness sake stop this talk of hung parliaments.

But we say NO, we shall not submit to this blatant attempt to stifle our freedom! Particularly since the Conservative Party used its slot last night for a broadcast by the fictional ‘Hung Parliament Party’ to lampoon the Liberal Democrats and pointing out the apparent problems a hung parliament would cause. It’s almost as if they couldn’t think of anything nice to say about themselves...

Continuing on the theme of rigorous in-depth policy analysis, news arrives that the Labour Party has appointed the director of 24, Stephen Hopkins, to direct its new election broadcast. He should have all the right credentials as 24 is long past its heyday and sees the leader (is it Jack Brown or Gordon Bauer?) regularly on the brink of full-scale catastrophic disaster...


QUOTE OF THE DAY

“If you spend all your time talking about hung parliaments, don’t be surprised if people think that’s the inevitable outcome”

– John Prescott a few days ago, quoted in today’s Guardian

THE GREASY POLL
Lab 28, Con 33, LibDem 30 (Guardian/ICM)

All together now (except the Labour Party)

It’s 2014 and David Cameron’s and Nick Clegg’s children have grown used to playing together…

A squatter in No.10?

How about this for an unlikely post-election scenario: Tories win the most seats but not an outright majority, while Labour is the second largest party but actually poll fewer votes than the Liberal Democrats. What’s unlikely about that, I hear you ask? Well, it seems that we would then be treated to the spectacle of Nick Clegg lobbying Westminster City Council to issue a court order for the eviction of Gordon Brown (who would still be the Prime Minister) from No.10 on the grounds that he is a squatter. And they say politics is boring? Watch this space!

Today and a large portion of the weekend have been dominated by continued courting of potential Liberal Democrat voters by Labour, and especially the Conservatives. The latter has been particularly pressing its liberal credentials in areas like ID cards and localism policy and Osborne has simultaneously been hammering away at the “hung parliament bad for business/Sterling/gilt markets” argument.

Labour went on the offensive strongly on the Tories education policy today but was unhelpfully distracted by stories to the effect that Alan Johnson (Home Secretary) is positioning for the Labour leadership in readiness for a Lab-Lib pact based on hints of support for proportional representation.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“You guys are looking for someone to throw an egg”

– Nick Robinson of the BBC records Gordon Brown’s response when asked by the entourage of reporters if he would meet and greet more “real people”.


THE GREASY POLL
Lab 30, Con 36, LibDem 23 (IpsosMORI, yesterday)

Play your cards right

“Didn’t they do well?”

No winner? So they must all be losers…?

It wasn’t a game-changer like last week, but all three party leaders performed well during the debate last night, with Brown and Cameron markedly improved and Clegg refusing to get back in his box.

The general consensus amongst media commentators and analysts was that nobody won, although most placed Brown behind Cameron and Clegg. The latter had known what he was in for after yesterday’s Tory-leaning papers had all but declared war against him but his main impact was simply forcing the other two to raise their game. Brown opened by admitting presentation and style is not his forte, and he seemed a bit more comfortable as a result.

Aside from Brown’s improved performance, Labour will have been encouraged by figures released by the ONS showing that growth for the first three months of the year was 0.2%. While this represents a slowing in growth, most analysts believe the snow chaos earlier in the year has brought the rate down with the VAT increase also playing a part.

If you have any spare time and fancy a good laugh, then have a read of the BNP manifesto which was launched today.


QUOTE OF THE DAY

“The rightwing press, if it has any sense, will be holding an inquest tonight on how it tried to damage Nick Clegg, but instead managed to reveal a touch of desperation, divide the Tory party and probably leave Clegg not just unscathed but martyred”

– Patrick Wintour of The Guardian declares victory in the media battle of Nick Clegg


THE GREASY POLL
Lab 29, Con 34, LibDem 28 (YouGov)

Episode II: Attack on Nick Clegg

‘Nasty’ Nick Clegg, seen here during his Eastenders days

The secret is to keep the audience guessing

Well the pilot show wasn’t quite what you’d been expecting, was it? The two established big names being outshone by the newcomer, setting us up nicely for the second live televised leaders’ debate (on foreign affairs) with no-one knowing which way things will go. Give that scriptwriter a BAFTA.

As with all the best soaps, the tabloids have taken sides in the feverish build-up with the Daily Telegraph splashing with a tenuous story about Lib Dem donors paying money directly into his personal account. That other famous tabloid, The Guardian, immediately rushed to defend Clegg, pointing out the donations had been properly registered and not used for personal expenditure. In a sign of just how frenzied the media hype is becoming, the Daily Mail (but of course) smeared Clegg for a “Nazi slur on UK”.

Bet let’s recap: Episode I saw Nick bash Gordon and Dave, although dour Gordon has since tried flirting with Nick. Smooth Dave took it badly and bashed Nick, saying it he wanted Gordon out of the house in two week time and this really wasn’t helping. Nick didn’t take too kindly to Gordon’s overtures, and called him “desperate”. And everyone knows Gordon doesn’t really like Nick, but he does want to stay in his house. Then Uncle Ken came along and said Nick would be bad for business, but Nick’s partner Vince remains a popular character.

Today’s episode may only see the plot thicken. Whereas last week Gordon agreed with Nick a lot, this week Nick will kick up a fuss about Trident, which Gordon and Dave both disagree with him about. Then there’s Europe…


QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I haven't seen The Sun yet, but judging by their tirades against [Nick Clegg] over the last few days, he will probably be accused of fathering Kerry Katona's latest child and then paying her to get rid of it.”

– Influential blogger Iain Dale thinks the ‘shameful’ media attacks on Clegg will backfire


THE GREASY POLL
Lab 27, Con 33, LibDem 31 (The Sun/YouGov)

At least the eggs can still fly

Flight chaos is hanging over this election like a…well, a volcanic ash cloud.

Flights of fancy

With the Liberal Democrats still flying high in the polls, there have been calls from some quarters (a Mr G Brown was promoting the idea in today’s Independent) for a progressive Lab-Lib coalition. Regardless of whether one considers this progressive or a disaster, today was a prime demonstration of why coalition government is singularly ill-suited for this country.

Having lambasted Labour for its “big government” philosophy, the Conservatives today took to the airwaves to insist on an immediate public inquiry into why the Government hadn’t got flights going sooner. Despite having previously and sensibly acknowledged that a volcano exploding in Iceland was not actually the Government’s fault, the Conservatives now seem to be suggesting the Government should have overruled the CAA and made planes fly regardless of the regulator’s concerns over safety. Petty party politics (what did Cameron once say about “Punch and Judy” politics?) wins again!

There was, however, some good news however today, for it seems the party leaders are finally connecting with the public. David Cameron connected with an egg hurled at him by a student in Cornwall (perhaps on behalf of The Mirror’s chicken which was ‘decapitated’ by Cameron yesterday), and Gordon Brown had to deal with awkward questions about why he had not visited Wales earlier in the campaign.

On policy issues, the day has been dominated by the IMF’s proposals for not one, but two taxes on banks and financial institutions. Cue the shadow Chancellors falling over themselves to say it had been their idea first…


QUOTE OF THE DAY

“OMG Osborne's hair now has a side-parting. Big, big error. Makes him look even younger..like Little Lord Fauntleroy.”

– Ben Brogan of the Daily Telegraph is not impressed


THE GREASY POLL
Lab 27, Con 33, LibDem 30 (BBC Poll of Polls)

All eyes on Scotland

Quick, follow me! We might be able to catch a flight from Glasgow to Spain!

Hung Parliament? Yes please!

Scotland took centre stage today as its airports became virtually the only place in Northern Europe where planes could take off. Also today, the Scottish National Party launched its manifesto, on a platform of ‘vote for us, that way nobody wins’.

Or rather, Alex Salmond believes if there’s a hung Parliament, then the SNP will hold the balance of power, which seems to somewhat neglect the fact that the Liberal Democrats would actually hold the balance of power. Even if by some statistically near-impossible twist of fate sees the SNP making the crucial difference to the numbers in any coalition negotiations, could any Westminster government survive being held hostage by Scottish nationalist MPs?

Salmond is, however, right when he says the prospect of a hung parliament “causes panic in the Labour and Tory ranks”. With the Liberal Democrats still riding high in the polls, both Labour and the Tories have been turning their guns on the Nick Clegg and his band of would-be gatecrashers. David Cameron yesterday junked his planned party political broadcast (which had been Labour-bashing) in favour of restating his ‘big society’ theme and a generally more positive approach.

Cameron’s next stop may be to his banker friends to plead for more money. The Times is reporting that publication of donations on May 4 has scared off previously pledged donors leaving the party with a £3m black hole. And they want to run the economy…

…amongst UKIP’s money-raising ploys are citrus air fresheners emblazoned with “Enjoy the smell of freedom – leave the EU”


QUOTE OF THE DAY

Dermot: Okay listen. Just to give people at home who are first time voters this election round, er sort of a taste of where you come from. What about you, you were a first time voter in '87. What inspired you? Presumably you voted Liberal in '87?
Clegg: Yeah I've always - I'm just trying to think um.
Dermot: Just clear that up, you have always voted Liberal?
Clegg: I've always voted Liberal, absolutely. Um.

– BBC Three’s Dermot O’Leary proves a tougher test for Nick Clegg than Jeremy Paxman


THE GREASY POLL
Lab 27, Con 33, LibDem 31 (YouGov)

Ashen faces all round

The weather forecast was another casualty of the ongoing volcanic ash crisis

No smoke without fire

With under three weeks to go, this election campaign is going well if the news is anything to go by. And also if the maxim ‘no news is good news’ is anything to go by. It is not, however, a maxim that politicians generally subscribe to, and they will have been none too pleased to discover pictures of them kissing babies had been dropped in favour of, er, ash.

Anyone tuning into the news today could have been forgiven for thinking the election had been called off to deal with the ongoing volcanic ash crisis. Today, for example, saw blanket media coverage of ash – the Prime Minister and senior Labour figures abandoning the campaign to hold an emergency COBRA meeting; and shots of HMS Albion which is going to pick up British soldiers returning from Afghanistan in northern Spain.

All this volcanic ash coverage will, however, have served as a handy smokescreen for both Labour – even their harshest critics can hardly pin responsibility for an Icelandic volcano eruption and the wind direction 10km up in the atmosphere – and the Conservatives who seem to be at something of a loss if they can’t blame the Government. That said, both will have had to rip up their media plans for the week and all the carefully timed photocalls will have gone out of the window.

One man who has well and truly vanished amongst all this volcanic ash is Nick Clegg. Having come out best in the leaders’ debate last week, the Liberal Democrats have been flying high in the polls, with The Sun even putting the party out in front.


QUOTE OF THE DAY

"So, is it true that the Icelandic authorities misread the government's note: ‘Send us all your cash’...?"

- Tom Harris, Labour incumbent Glasgow South gets in on the volcanic ash jokes on Twitter


THE GREASY POLL
Lab 26, Con 32, LibDem 33 (The Sun/YouGov)

And the debate begins

Well satisfied

The morning after

So that was that then. How was it for you?

An estimated 9.4 million people tuned in to the first-ever live televised leaders’ debate on ITV last night, with viewing figures reaching as high as 9.9 million at one point, suggesting all this talk of apathy towards politics is – oh look, a cloud shaped like a duck!

Nick Clegg emerged almost unanimously as the winner, according to various polls and pundits, with Cameron slightly edging Brown. Some have even gone so far as to suggest there is a real prospect of a three-horse race, which leaves Labour and Tory strategists in a quandary: do they approach the Liberal Democrats as potential partners and try to woo them (most plausibly with offers of party funding reform and moves toward proportional representation) or do they put extra effort and resource into targeting LibDem voters?

Perhaps in an attempt to distract from their debate performances, the Conservatives and Labour today stepped up the celeb war with Gary Barlow of Take That fame taking to the stage at a Nantwich school to endorse the Tories’ proposals on music in schools. Labour meanwhile wheeled out Eddie Izzard who insisted the Tories are ‘talking Britain down’.


QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Long after the United States, and even after Iran, Afghanistan and Mongolia, politics in Britain is moving into the television age."

– The NY Times verdict on the debate


THE GREASY POLL
Lab 31, Con 37, LibDem 22 (YouGov)

Will there be fireworks?

The prospects of tonight’s televised live leaders’ debate proved just too exciting for this volcano in Iceland

The debate

Ahead of tonight’s first-ever televised live leaders’ debate on ITV, everyone has caught the debate bug it seems. Who will come out on top? Will there be any knock-out blows? Will it make a difference? Which is ironic, because you can be sure that the one thing that will be largely absent from tonight’s debate will be, well, debate.

ITV have helpfully put together a condensed version of the 76 rules governing the debates into a slightly less cumbersome 5-page guide for tonight’s programme (available here). They provide for four minutes of ‘free debate’ on the theme (domestic policy tonight) with an additional four minutes of ‘free debate’ following the general Q&A with the audience. The programme lasts 90 minutes.

With the three parties having published their manifestoes, there is nothing new the leaders can announce and we can expect a PMQs-style ‘debate’ between Brown and Cameron. Clegg on the other hand will relish the exposure of the debates, and having won plaudits after his decision to do battle with Paxman will be full of confidence.

Elsewhere, Labour received a boost today on the ongoing battle over public spending cuts however with 77 (count ‘em) economists writing in The Times that the efficiency savings announced by the Tories “could even affect confidence to the degree that we are tipped back into recession”. Usually if you asked 77 economists a question you’d get 77 different answers… what is the collective noun for economists anyway? A ‘disagreement’?


QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I return to my hotel room to find a hamper of some of my favourite things – Turkish Delight, Twinings English Breakfast tea, strawberry flavoured still water and, nestling between shortbread and a “Keep Calm and Carry On” mug, two packs of Marlboro Light."

– Alistair Stewart of ITV certainly knows how to live it up ahead of arguably the biggest day of his career.


THE GREASY POLL
Lab 30, Con 35, LibDem 21 (MORI)

It’s fair enough, to be fair to him

“…And there was a third man there. I suppose that doesn’t sound peculiar to you.”

Manifesto edition #3: Liberal Democrat man wants to be Prime Minister

With Labour and the Conservatives having launched their manifestoes, what more is there to do but sit back and watch the two parties hurl mud at each other until polling day? What’s that? There’s another Party? The Liberal Democrats you say? Fair enough.

To be fair, the Liberal Democrats deserve a fair hearing, and their manifesto launch this morning went fairly well. It’s all about – would you believe it – ‘fairness’. Nick Clegg couldn’t have used the word more if he’d been discussing fairground prices. If fairness sounds boringly predictable, then at least the Liberal Democrats have taken the innovative step of confirming specific spending cuts, including a two-year £400 pay rise cap for public sector workers; cancelling Eurofighter Tranche 3b and of course abandoning ID cards. They also want to increase the starting income tax threshold to £10,000 which will save anyone earning £10k-£100k about £700, with those below the £10k threshold paying no income tax at all.

When it came to fielding questions from the journalists, Clegg was able to recite these details at ease, unlike Cameron who delegated to his Shadow Chancellor. Clegg even brazenly said that he “wanted to be Prime Minister”, and reminded them that 1 in 4 of people who voted in 2005 had voted Liberal Democrat. Could they, to be fair, be a serious contender?

Tonight, ITV1, 7.30pm – Mark Austin interviews Gordon Brown


QUOTE OF THE DAY

"…even with their wives in tow Messrs Brown and Cameron have scarcely been setting the country alight"

– is Philip Stevens of the FT perhaps implying that Gordon Brown and David Cameron should try a civil partnership with Vince Cable?


THE GREASY POLL
Lab 33, Con 36, LibDem 21 (The Times/Populus)

You are cordially invited…

“Psst, have you received your invitation yet, Gordon?”

Manifesto edition #2: Look chaps, let’s just call this thing off

David Cameron today launched the Conservative Party manifesto in confident style at Battersea Power Station. In fact, so confident is he that he appears to believe the election should actually be called off and the Conservative Party should simply invite people to form a Government. But in describing the manifesto as an “invitation to join the government of Britain”, has Cameron not overlooked something? What if Messrs Brown, Darling, and indeed the Labour Party en masse decide to accept the invitation? Assuming this doesn’t happen however, the Conservative manifesto – like Labour’s yesterday – contains very little that is new, with perhaps the commitment to at least consult on a ‘fair fuel stabiliser’, a tax levied on energy firms to reduce fuel duty at times of high prices and vice versa, being the notable exception.

Cameron himself was on excellent form though (the same cannot be said of George Osborne) and will probably get a good write-up in tomorrow’s papers. If he makes it in, that is, for today also saw the launch not only of the UK Independence Party manifesto, but of Plaid Cymru’s too. The former, with 12 MEPs, is hoping to secure its first Westminster MP and the Welsh Nationalists’ (currently with 3 MPs) key policy is £300 million more for, er, Wales. Typical.


QUOTE OF THE DAY

"After my 3rd canvassing session so far today I am SO glad in invested in a pair of really comfortable shoes."

- so tweets Sarah McCarthy-Fry, Labour incumbent in Portsmouth North. See, they are like us really.


THE GREASY POLL

Lab 33, Con 39, LibDem 20 (YouGov)

A left-wing manifesto launch, and ‘Blair-plus’

Labour strategists moonlighting as fortune-tellers. Or is it the other way around?

Manifesto edition #1: Labour

“Make the fat cats pay!” the manifesto screams on the front page. Inside it calls for a 20% windfall tax on ‘super profits’ of British banks, oil corporations, energy utilities and retail monopolies. There’s also a 1% wealth tax for the richest 10% of the population, and the abandonment of ID cards. That’s right, the Communist Party of Great Britain cranked up its election campaign today.

Elsewhere, the Labour Party became the first of the major parties to launch its election manifesto today, but the 76-page document is sadly far less interesting than their comrades’. Entitled ‘A future fair for all’, Gordon Brown claimed it was not a ‘business as usual manifesto’ but was designed to address the challenges, saying somewhat mysteriously that “we are in the future business”. Lord Mandelson gave an insight into his vision of the future by describing the manifesto as ‘Blair-plus’.

With the Treasury’s coffers all but bare and having just had the Budget a few weeks ago, it’s frankly unsurprising that the manifesto contains almost no surprises. Most of the ideas have already been announced, but it did say the proposed National Care Service for the elderly will be paid through the proposals on Inheritance Tax. Conspicuous by its absence though was any real detail on government spending cuts…


QUOTE OF THE DAY

"The Tories are fake, you can't trust them. I mean how can you trust people who say they believe in dealing with poverty and then give tax breaks to millionaires?"

– Nick Clegg dampens any Conservative ideas of a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in his interview in The Observer

THE GREASY POLL

Lab 31, Con 37, LibDem 20 (YouGov/The Sun)

My efficiency saving is bigger than yours!

“I don’t believe it!” Victor Meldrew adds his two pennies worth to the various claims about efficiency savings

Lord Adonis wants YOU! (well, if you’re Liberal Democrat)
And so the first week of the election campaign ends much as it began, with the Tories and Labour still trading blows over efficiency savings. The Tories have arguably had the better of it this week, with Labour usually on the defensive. Today saw the Tories’ chief efficiency savings guru, Sir Peter Gershon (previously employed by the Government to advise them on, er, efficiency savings) give a bit more detail on where the Tories have found more efficiency savings than the Government. Labour did its best Victor Meldrew impression (Alistair Darling didn’t quite say “I don’t believe it!” but it was close) and said the Tories would be cutting up to 40,000 public sector jobs.

More interesting was Lord Adonis’ plea for Liberal Democrat voters to vote tactically for Labour to keep the Tories out. Adonis, a former Liberal Democrat councillor himself before metamorphosing into the lovable (unless you live near Heathrow) Transport Secretary/train geek, seems to be taking a somewhat negative approach for a campaign still in its infancy.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I f****** hate Paolo Nutini."

– regardless of how much one might loathe Mr Nutini, Rule #1 of How To Be A PPC is don’t broadcast it on Twitter. As sacked Labour PPC for Moray, Stuart MacLennan, discovered to his cost having tweeted on David Cameron, John Bercow and Nick Clegg with equally heavy reliance on expletives.

THE GREASY POLL
Lab 31, Con 38, LibDem 20 (Sky News Poll of Polls)

Hang on lads, I’ve got an idea

Just like that bus, the election could still go either way.

Thank God it’s not Friday

It’s early days yet, but it looks today as if the revolutionaries who have been quietly threatening to do away with one of the nation’s most sacred institutions have been vanquished. Yes, Returning Officers up and down the land are beating a hasty retreat in the face of ‘new guidance’ from our own indomitable Electoral Commission. For a while it had seemed as if Election Night this year would be but a pale shadow of the former bygone glory years, with Returning Officers outrageously refusing to work throughout the night and instead start counting on Friday morning. Clearly this could be allowed to pass – imagine the prospect of live coverage of Peter Snow reduced to having a nap waiting for a ‘Portillo moment’ scheduled for 9.30am. No, far better to have him wandering about his little studio of virtual graphics and suddenly cutting away to something interesting. Just 30 constituencies are still holding out – is there a slimmed down sequel to 300 in the making here?

Elsewhere, today saw the first celebrity endorsement of the campaign, with Sir Michael Caine weighing in behind the Tories, as their supply of business leaders to plug their stance on the National Insurance increase began to dry up – just 13 new ones today.

Labour mounted something of a fightback on National Insurance this morning, wheeling out the big guns (Brown, Darling and Mandelson to you) to counter Tory claims. But their press conference seemed to amount to “don’t believe them lot”, which may not be quite enough to persuade the electorate.


QUOTE OF THE DAY

"In our society, the closest thing to a rite of passage is getting drunk on your 18th birthday."

– David Cameron during the launch of his National Citizen Service plans. Is he speaking from experience?


THE GREASY POLL

Lab 30, Con 38, LibDem 20 (UKPR polling average)